The job market for programmers in the United States has reached a Turning point , with an 11% drop in programmer employment projected between 2022 and 2032 1. This results in the loss of approximately 147,000 jobs in the next decade. This phenomenon, driven by automation, the rise of no-code and the coding capabilities of artificial intelligence, is already beginning to be replicated in Spain and Portugal, where companies must prepare for a similar impact.
Mass layoffs and wage adjustments: the new reality
Big tech companies like Meta and Amazon have led a wave of layoffs that has affected thousands of developers in the U.S. 2. This scenario is being strongly replicated in the Iberian market, where the impact on employment will be inevitable if companies do not adapt to the new technological realities.
- Reduction in the demand for programmers : With a saturated labor market, salaries for junior programmers have fallen by as much as 50% in some cases.
- Projection in Iberia : As Spanish and Portuguese companies adopt no-code tools and automation, we are likely to see a similar decline in demand for traditional programmers.
Importantly, in Europe, approximately 7.5% of developers were laid off in the last year, according to a report by OfferZen. This figure is an indication that, although the waves of layoffs have not reached the proportions seen in the US, the European labour market is not immune to this trend. In fact, European companies, including those in Spain and Portugal, are taking a more cautious approach to their hiring, with an increase in competition for available roles.
In addition, an OECD report warns that up to 30% of jobs in Portugal are "threatened" by automation and artificial intelligence, underlining the urgency for Iberian companies to adapt their talent strategies to this new reality. As AI and no-code tools like ChatGPT and WordPress continue to gain traction, we're likely to see a continued decline in demand for traditional programmers, with a growing focus on roles that require more advanced skills in artificial intelligence and automation.
This context highlights that the transformation of the developer labor market in the U.S. is not an isolated phenomenon, but a sign of what is to come for European economies, especially in the Iberian Peninsula. Adapting to this structural change is not only a matter of survival, but of long-term competitiveness.
No-Code and SaaS: Shopify and WordPress as Examples of Catalysts for Change
No-code platforms such as Shopify and WordPress They are transforming app and website development, making basic programming tasks accessible to non-technical users. This shift is reducing the need for developers for day-to-day tasks and reorienting the market toward more strategic roles.
- Shopify : With more than 4.4 million stores worldwide, most of them built without the need for programmers, Shopify is a clear example of how no-code is eroding demand for developers 3.
- WordPress : Used on 43% of all websites, WordPress allows millions of people to create and manage sites without coding.
No-code platforms are not only transforming web development, but they are creating an entirely new business ecosystem. A recent study reveals that the market for no-code and low-code tools will grow by 23% annually until 2028, reaching a value of more than 65,000 million dollars. Not only is this expansion driving the adoption of platforms like Shopify and WordPress, but it's also redefining the skills needed in the tech job market. Companies are prioritizing hiring professionals who can integrate and optimize these tools, while traditional programmers are faced with the challenge of reinventing themselves to stay relevant in an environment where automation and ease of use have become the new rules of the game.
Artificial intelligence: the ChatGPT effect in programming
AI tools such as ChatGPT are leading the automation of Coding at another level , generating functional code from simple natural language descriptions. This is redefining the role of the programmer, who must now focus more on supervision and strategy than direct coding.
- Code automation : ChatGPT and similar tools are starting to replace programmers' manual work, especially on repetitive tasks, accelerating job displacement.
Automation in coding is not only speeding up processes, but it's also transforming the very structure of work in software development. A recent study reveals that AI-assisted developers can complete tasks up to 56% faster than those who don't use these tools. This efficiency is comparable to the revolution that the steam engine caused in industrial productivity, suggesting that we are facing a radical change in the sector ( Business Insider ).
In addition, ChatGPT not only generates code, but also helps integrate components and APIs, which improves business agility by enabling rapid iterations and experimentation in software development. However, this doesn't come without challenges: the growing reliance on AI has a Unequal distribution by country , and it also implies new demands in terms of skills, such as the ability to formulate effective questions to maximize the usefulness of these tools. This highlights the importance of continuous adaptation and training to stay competitive in a rapidly changing environment ( Acceleration Economy ).
This landscape shows us that programming, as we know it, is changing, and the programmers of the future will have to specialize in areas where AI cannot yet compete, such as system architecture and cybersecurity. The key will be to know how to complement the capabilities of AI with critical human skills that ensure the integrity and efficiency of the software produced.
Impact on Spain and Portugal: change is already here
This structural change in the US is a clear indicator of what is starting to happen in Spain and Portugal. Similar to the US, Iberian companies are rapidly adopting no-code tools and SaaS solutions, which could lead to a significant decrease in the demand for programmers in the region.
- Evolution in Iberia : The adoption of no-code technologies and automation by Spanish and Portuguese companies are already starting to reduce the demand for traditional developers, with a potential impact on thousands of jobs in the coming years.
These trends are already leaving a significant footprint in the region. In recent years, there has been an increase in the adoption of no-code and low-code platforms, not only by large companies, but also by small and medium-sized companies that seek to accelerate their digitization without relying exclusively on traditional developers.
In Spain, the software development market is growing at a rate of 15% per year, driven by the growing demand for advanced technological services, such as artificial intelligence and cloud computing ( TalentUp ). However, this growth is not evenly distributed across all IT roles. The integration of automation and no-code tools is starting to displace programmers who perform repetitive and less specialized tasks, generating a change in the skills required by the labor market.
In addition, the rapid adoption of these technologies in the business environment is reducing development time and allowing projects to be completed with fewer specialized personnel, which could lead to a reduction in the demand for programmers in certain sectors. This shift not only reflects a decrease in the need for traditional developers, but also a transformation in skills that will be most valued in the near future, such as the ability to manage no-code platforms and integrate AI solutions into business processes.
This scenario suggests that, as in the US, Spain and Portugal must prepare for an evolving labour market, where adaptability and specialisation in new technologies will be key to staying competitive. Companies that anticipate these changes and encourage continuous training of their teams will be better positioned to take advantage of emerging opportunities and mitigate the risks associated with automation and digitalization.
Strategies to adapt to the new reality
The transformation of the developer labor market in the U.S. is just the beginning of a global change. Companies in Spain and Portugal must act now to adapt, investing in training their employees in new technologies and preparing for a market where the demand for traditional programming skills could decrease dramatically.
The adoption of no-code and SaaS tools is not only transforming the way businesses operate, but it is also reshaping the labor market and employee expectations. According to recent studies, no-code and low-code platforms are expected to account for more than 65% of app development activity by 2024. This shift not only accelerates digital transformation, but also democratizes access to technology, allowing more employees, without deep technical knowledge, to contribute to the development of digital solutions.
This phenomenon is driving the emergence of new roles and opportunities, such as no-code platform administrators, consultants, and trainers, who are responsible for the customization and optimization of these tools within organizations. As companies in Spain and Portugal begin to integrate these technologies, they will not only have to restructure their teams, but also foster a culture of innovation that allows them to make the most of these platforms.
This approach is aligned with Proportione's philosophy, which seeks to combine technology and people to generate effective business strategies. By empowering employees with tools that allow them to innovate and collaborate beyond traditional boundaries, companies will not only ensure their competitiveness, but also prepare their teams for a future where agility and adaptation are key.
The key to surviving in this new environment will be adaptation and anticipation. Those companies that manage to integrate no-code technologies, SaaS and AI tools into their operations will be better positioned to face the future and maintain their competitiveness in an increasingly automated world.